The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion

One of the complicated strategies, helping to win a fortune in blackjack, is the Kelly Criterion. When exploring this theory you will have to be highly attentive and possess good mathematical skills. When used correctly The Kelly Criterion helps to maximize the profit and minimizes the risk of ruin. Rather useful system for counting cards admirers.

Now it is high time to delve the Kelly Criterion strategy in minute details. The Kelly Strategy can also be known as Kelly Formula. I fact this is a concrete formula which helps the player to calculate bet size to be the most suitable for the definite situation. Here one takes into account the odds of win and the probability of loss.

Take notice that the Kelly Criterion strategy does not guaranty your winning game. The only thing the system can make for you is to increase your profit in case you win. Also using this strategy you are not safe from losses. The Kelly Criterion only will help you not to lose much. But those who don’t wish to defeat a house edge but are playing with positive expectation may find this theory very advantageous.

We have come to the formula itself. It looks like that:

f = (b times p minus q) divided by b

In this very case “f” is the fraction of a player’s bankroll which should be wagered. This is that very number you are looking for while using this strategy.

“b” is the odds you will receive on the wager.

“p” is the probability the player will win the wager.

“q” is the probability the player will lose the wager. It is determined in a simple bet as “1-p”. Consider the example: if “p” = 0.50%, then “q” will be equal 1- 0.50% that is 0.50%.

One can note that the Kelly Formula can be at some extent simplified o the shortened variant:

f = 2p – 1

It is not a secret that a vast bulk of players doubt whether they have correctly done all the calculations. In this respect there is a slight variation from the Kelly Criterion. It is called “Half-Kelly”. It does not mean that here you will avoid complicated calculations. The formula remains the same. The only difference is that the “f” number is divided into two. That is it. Thus you bet not the whole number “f” but only its’ half. That is why the name “Half-Kelly” is used for this derivation of original Kelly Criterion.

The Kelly Criterion Disadvantages

It is worthy of note that this very theory can be highly useful only in the long run respect. If you are eager to have short-term success or dream to win every hand, it will be better to find something different. This strategy will not answer all your hopes. Moreover your profit absolutely lies on your counting ability. In case of wrong calculations you can lose huge sums of money. That is why if the odds prediction is not your strong quality let the others try their forces in Kelly Criterion.


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